Want to get the latest read on which party has the edge this Election Day? The Fox News Probability Meter is here for you. The new tool is launching on FoxNews.com, to give midterm election-watchers a ...

The Monte Carlo simulation estimates the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted because of the potential for random variables.

Discover how emotional biases impact stock market crash estimates. See why expert analysis suggests lower risk and learn how to refine your own forecasts.

Robbins (1968) considered the problem of estimating the total probability of the unobserved outcomes of an experiment. In this paper we suggest an estimator, based on n trials, and show that under ...

In this paper, we propose Vasicek-type models for estimating portfolio-level probability of default (PD). With these Vasicek models, asset correlation and long-run PD (LRPD) for a risk-homogeneous ...

Discover why options market data suggests a lower crash risk for U.S. stocks than pundit surveys, and how to optimize asset ...

The problem of estimating the variance of the ratio estimator in sampling with probability proportional to aggregate size is investigated. The form of nonnegative unbiased variance estimators is found ...

Basel II adopting banks estimate and validate long-run probability of default (LRPD) for each of their internal risk ratings. In this study, we examine alternative methodologies in estimating and ...

Pramote Cholayudth, [email protected], is the founder and manager of PM Consult. He is an industrial pharmacist with more than 40 years of experience. He is a guest speaker on process validation ...

New research found that infants have better math skills than previously suspected. From the age of six months, babies can calculate probability and estimate risk. Research from the Max Planck ...