Welcome to my new blog here on Forbes.com. Over the new few months I’m going to be talking about a couple of quite disparate but fascinating areas: book publishing and high-impact low-probability ...

The long-term peak in forward rates for U.S. Treasury exceeds the near-term peak, indicating a step toward normal yields. The streak of negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spreads has reached 292 trading ...

explores risk management lessons from everyday games, showing how strategy, probability, and smart decisions drive business ...

In the middle of our semi-daily panics about Europe, someone decided to throw in an earnings season. When I think of it, I try to tweet out higher-profile earnings estimates. That is, estimates of the ...