“The US will fall into a recession in late 2024 or early 2025,” they wrote, citing data from their kinked Phillips curve framework. According to BCA, the framework suggests a nonlinear ...

We warn investors of recession signals in the resolved yield curve, questioning Biden officials' role in bond market effects.

That’s the highest estimate since the early 1980s, when a recession hit, and recessions have followed far lower levels of yield curve inversion. The model has a robust track record in calling ...