It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

We live in a world where a lot of things seem to happen by pure chance, from winning the Lotto to losing your car keys. But the truth is, the likelihood of many everyday things happening is heavily ...

Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

Assume you made a decision to invest in an active strategy based on, say, a backtest of the underlying process (to be clear, active means NOT passive market-cap weight in my context). Over the next ...

What is the probability that, if you toss a coin, it will land “heads”? What is the probability that it will rain today? What is the probability that India will win the next cricket series in ...

Bayesian Networks, also known as Belief Networks or Bayes Nets, are a powerful probabilistic graphical model used for reasoning under uncertainty. They have been successfully applied to a wide range ...