Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And in 2020, the trio flipped back blue, going to President Joe Biden. The three key states, which collectively account for 44 electoral votes, have yet to be called for either Harris or Trump in the 2024 race.

The polls that powered those forecasts have, so far, proven to be highly accurate–nail-bitingly so.Yet Trump has moved into a commanding lead in the New York Times’ election forecast, with his win probability increasing inexorably over between 8 and 10pm.

She is still criticized in Wisconsin for skipping the state in the general election that year. Biden restored the blue wall for Democrats in 2020. In each of those cases, the three states went in the same direction to eventually boost the victor.