Watch a live tracker of Hurricane Erin as it moves through the northeast Caribbean. The first Atlantic hurricane of the year is not expected to hit land.

It continues to push toward the northern Leeward Islands, where tropical storm watches are now in effect as of the 8 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center. Intensification is expected as Erin moves toward warmer ocean temperatures over the next several days.

The storm’s likely path is coming into focus, but a lot can still change. Here’s what the forecasters look at.

Hurricane Erin is bringing heavy rain to the U.S. Virgin Islands on Saturday as the Category 5 storm moves through the Caribbean

Hurricane Erin has surged to Category 4 storm status and could bring dangerous surf and rip currents to the Jersey Shore next week as it remains far out to see.